21 replies to this topic

[WOS87]

Since a ranking purely by winning percentage favors younger programs and a ranking purely by total wins heavily favors older programs here are a couple of rankings that try to compromise a bit.

The first is just a ranking of total games over 0.500 (total wins-total losses) in the modern era (1951-2007). Statistically this evens the field somewhat. A program that's been around for over half a century is just as likely to have a score of zero as a program that's been around for only one season. Obviously longevity is still a big factor (West Orange-Stark, having only played for 31 seasons, is the youngest program on the list) but then again, if you win consistently over a long period of time that should count for something.




The second set also only includes records from the modern era (1951-2007). These are rankings by most average wins per season played, fewest average losses per season played, and average total games played per season. The first gives younger teams more of an advantage and it also gives teams who've done well in the playoffs an advantage because having 14, 15, or 16 wins in a season definitely helps your average.

The second is skewed towards teams with consistently good regular seasons and discounts playoff success almost completely. Teams with consistently weak schedules and teams who are dominant forces in relatively weak districts will have an advantage here. Interestingly enough, even though one would think both of these methods would highly favor younger programs, almost half of the ranked programs have played the maximum of 57 seasons.



The third is the average number of games played per season. This ranking focusses purely on consistent playoff success. Assuming the vast majority of teams play a 10-game regular season, an average of 11.0 would signify that on average, that team has made it to the bi-district round of the playoffs and lost every year. Obviously, teams that have racked up the playoff wins will rank highly, with teams advancing to a 5th and 6th playoff game having the advantage.

Refugio is the king of the 'old schools' as it is the only program in the state that has averaged greater than 9 wins a year, less than 3 losses per year, and played more than 11.5 games per season on average over the entire 57 year span.

Edited by WOS87, 10 December 2007 - 05:13 AM.

[SWMustang]

how many wins does WO-S have all time?

[HebronHawk]

Since a ranking purely by winning percentage favors younger programs and a ranking purely by total wins heavily favors older programs here's a compromise that I simply call the Consistency Ranking. It's essentially a ranking by total games over or under 0.500 using all-time records or to put it simply (All-Time Wins minus All-Time Losses). Statistically this evens the field somewhat. A program that's been around for over a century is just as likely to have a score of zero as a program that's been around for only one season. Obviously longevity is a big factor (Westlake is the youngest program on the list having played 36 varsity seasons) but then again, if you win consistently over a long period of time that should count for something.

I like the idea of net wins (over losses) generating a consistency % but you are still only considering teams with hundreds of games played over decades of history. I don't see how the young teams are considered at all.

[Fletch]

I like the idea of net wins (over losses) generating a consistency % but you are still only considering teams with hundreds of games played over decades of history. I don't see how the young teams are considered at all.

It still favors older teams. Doesn't mean much to me.

[Azo]

I like the idea of net wins (over losses) generating a consistency % but you are still only considering teams with hundreds of games played over decades of history. I don't see how the young teams are considered at all.

But the 2nd chart highley favors young teams...

[HIGH PLAINS]

Counting records before 1951 skews the figures towards schools like Amarillo and Abilene whose size let them dominate the surrounding towns. Similarly, it is to the detriment of small schools with early day programs like 1-A Stratford who played Amarillo for lack of any other schools in the area to fill their schedule.

[Cameron Crazy]

Graham should have more wins than breck

[HebronHawk]

But the 2nd chart highley favors young teams...

You are correct. It was added after the discussion started.

[brahmuskie12]

i just like the data, WOS87 is the ultimate "chart guy" good work

[WOS87]

i just like the data, WOS87 is the ultimate "chart guy" good work

Just posting to note a couple of new "charts" have been added recently to the original post for those interested.....

[pattycakes12]

Just out of curiosity how does mesquite high school fare in the consistency debate ?

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Edited by pattycakes12, 20 November 2006 - 09:18 PM.

[MojoLand]

have a feeling the permian numbers are about to be improved on after the eight year drought.

[jcisco loboe'77]

From a 'lowly' 2A fan any idea where Cisco ranks???????????
.......and even lower--1A!! !! Any idea the highest a 1A team or any team for that matter--has scored in a single season??
Mucho FB thanks!

[outofstate]

Refugio is the best team in texas fb history!! should have won at least to the semis maybe finals. look up the game recap...

[LoboFan07]

Ranked #25 in consistency..and not one State Title. *sighs*

[jcisco loboe'77]

Ranked #25 in consistency..and not one State Title. *sighs*

....sounds like those other LOBOES---Cisco!!! Nice to be in the Top anything in 2A!! Mucho FB thanks to Coach Brent West and the fine Loboe FB staff!!!!

[Hays Rebel Pride]

i was curious to how consecutive winning or .500 or better seasons would rank? I know that at Hays Consolidated they have 22 consecutive seasons.

[rkhufu7]

i was curious to how consecutive winning or .500 or better seasons would rank? I know that at Hays Consolidated they have 22 consecutive seasons.

Winning seasons, not break even! What kind of season yall having with the Stangs coming to town in September? Reagan won so much for so long that even though they fell off the planet after 2003 they are still at 7-3 winning percentage!

Edited by rkhufu7, 30 June 2008 - 09:30 AM.

[MOJO_MAN94]

have a feeling the permian numbers are about to be improved on after the eight year drought.

and permian is still under-estimated lol (I think that's the way we like it)

[jcisco loboe'77]

'MOJO_MAN94' ......welcome to this great site!!!!
WOS87...when's the next update????