103 replies to this topic

[jbell73986]

no not at all

they draw from a 15 mile radius of the school

btw bc and sjr draw from the same pool

that said the population within this is over one million and you are making my point

of course the best players in this area skip the local pubs to play at these three schools instead and thjat is why they have been NATIONAL powers for decades (even if you WERE unaware)

No, you are making my point. Bosco has this advantage b/c they can draw from the surrounding populations. Does a rural school with 1000 kids have the same pool to draw from? The answer is no, and in that case school size is relevant in determining rankings. Only a human can draw the distinction there is in a school's size and what can be expected as reasonable outcomes.(I expect a private school with 1000 kids to compete better than a rural school with 1000 kids based on their ability to focus quality applicants) Seriously, you are way over your head in this argument.

Edited by jbell73986, 31 March 2011 - 09:48 PM.

[noonereal]

No, you are making my point. Bosco has this advantage b/c they can draw from the surrounding populations. Does a rural school with 1000 kids have the same pool to draw from? The answer is no, and in that case school size is relevant in determining rankings. Only a human can draw the distinction there is in a school's size and what can be expected as reasonable outcomes.(I expect a private school with 1000 kids to compete better than a rural school with 1000 kids based on their ability to focus quality applicants) Seriously, you are way over your head in this argument.

no dumb dumb I was agreeing with you

I don't automatically take a position of defense like you, or opposition like you.

Bosco indeed has a great advantage. How else can a school with an enrollment of 1000 be better than Trnity? Trinity has numbers, that's why they are good. Bosco has other advantages. No miracles at Trinity nor Bosco. You guys don't have special kids. That's just dumb. You have more. How many times have I said it? More.

lol, if i am ever over my head in a discussion where doess that leave you?

you need to focus better, do some mental exercises, give yourself a chance

maybe start with learning how to work the quotes

[jbell73986]

no dumb dumb I was agreeing with you

I don't automatically take a position of defense like you, or opposition like you.

Bosco indeed has a great advantage. How else can a school with an enrollment of 1000 be better than Trnity? Trinity has numbers, that's why they are good. Bosco has other advantages. No miracles at Trinity nor Bosco. You guys don't have special kids. That's just dumb. You have more. How many times have I said it? More.

lol, if i am ever over my head in a discussion where doess that leave you?

you need to focus better, do some mental exercises, give yourself a chance

maybe start with learning how to work the quotes

Geez NOR follow along again...I argued Calpreps is garbage b/c they don't factor school size in their assessment. The reason why I think this is a fallacy is b/c size does matter when you factor the type of school (private vs a rural school) and their ability to attract better talent. And in your infinite wisdom you state you agree with me...Brilliant!!

You really don't know what your arguing or even the day of the week. You are trying to pose as an intelligent person and falling short. And your only recourse is to call names.

[lamarfan]

that is more than funny that is hysterical!

I can just see them getting smacked around by st eds or dls

lol

(truth is I think they would make it a very competitive game)

Most states dont include DLS. There more for NY,NJ, Utah,N.Dakota, Colorado,Nebraska,Vermont, Arkansas, Missouri, Wyoming, Wisconsin etc. I never said the top Ca team fool..

[lamarfan]

easy favorite???? they why were they not ranked by man nor machine until December

another post with no though behind it

There you go again having to be told how to think by a suit thats trying to sell newspapers or advertising. USA today would really like to sell newspapers in other state besides Texas, they cant very well leave everybody out. And it is UNPROVEN so the only thing they can do is to spread around the spots and make it believable by making most all of them undefeated teams.(In Texas after 16 games some killer teams will a loss or two after facing some giants)

I promise if it were played off Texas gets no less then 7-8 spots, Ca no less then 5-6 spots, Fl no less then 4-5 spots, Ohio 2 spots. And the other 5 spots can be fought for a Bosco,Byrne's, Beleview, South Panola, Hoover, Virginia or Michigan,Oregon, Kentucky, Bingham, Oklahoma, Arizona or a Illinois.

Edited by lamarfan, 01 April 2011 - 12:26 AM.

[noonereal]

Geez NOR follow along again...I argued Calpreps is garbage b/c they don't factor school size in their assessment. The reason why I think this is a fallacy is b/c size does matter when you factor the type of school (private vs a rural school) and their ability to attract better talent. And in your infinite wisdom you state you agree with me...Brilliant!!

You really don't know what your arguing or even the day of the week. You are trying to pose as an intelligent person and falling short. And your only recourse is to call names.

i have called no names, i never do

i have pet names for some of the contestants as yourself but never written in anger to be crude.

if a school is big or has advantages it has to show in the final scores or it is not a factor. If it shows in the scores cal records it, if it does not they do not. What could be more accurate? You assuming a school is good because they are big?

let me crystallize my argument. TX is not appreciably better than any other state in quality. they simply have more, more people hence more schools

more good school , more bad schools

more

it also means that they should have a better team than NJ has 4 out of five years

certainly that has not been the case the last 5 years but over time it works out

[noonereal]

Most states dont include DLS. There more for NY,NJ, Utah,N.Dakota, Colorado,Nebraska,Vermont, Arkansas, Missouri, Wyoming, Wisconsin etc. I never said the top Ca team fool..

but Bosco's best beats CA's best and Vermont and NJ are apples and oranges so you make no sense at all, as usual

[noonereal]

There you go again having to be told how to think by a suit thats trying to sell newspapers or advertising. USA today would really like to sell newspapers in other state besides Texas, they cant very well leave everybody out. And it is UNPROVEN so the only thing they can do is to spread around the spots and make it believable by making most all of them undefeated teams.(In Texas after 16 games some killer teams will a loss or two after facing some giants)

I promise if it were played off Texas gets no less then 7-8 spots, Ca no less then 5-6 spots, Fl no less then 4-5 spots, Ohio 2 spots. And the other 5 spots can be fought for a Bosco,Byrne's, Beleview, South Panola, Hoover, Virginia or Michigan,Oregon, Kentucky, Bingham, Oklahoma, Arizona or a Illinois.

i believe you believe whaT YOU WRITE

but i don't and no one who follows high school football for a living does

btw, why do you think so highly of fl and not oh

oh has much better teams than does fl

[jbell73986]

i have called no names, i never do

i have pet names for some of the contestants as yourself but never written in anger to be crude.

if a school is big or has advantages it has to show in the final scores or it is not a factor. If it shows in the scores cal records it, if it does not they do not. What could be more accurate? You assuming a school is good because they are big? If a small school in Texas never plays a bigger school than the stat will never show as a factor. Yes, it is relevant when you're factoring schools in different classifications. This is not hard to understand especially in assuming that a .500 school in Tx 5A is comparable to a .500 school in 2A. Yet this is what the model assumes. They are not equal. This is not hard to understand.

let me crystallize my argument. TX is not appreciably better than any other state in quality. they simply have more, more people hence more schools

more good school , more bad schools

more.

it also means that they should have a better team than NJ has 4 out of five years

certainly that has not been the case the last 5 years but over time it works out

[noonereal]

bell, if a school is big or has advantages it has to show in the final score and cal accounts for this

you do realize how all this info compounds which is why as the season goes on it is so incredibly accurate don't you?

It's not one dimensional as you paint it.

[jbell73986]

bell, if a school is big or has advantages it has to show in the final score and cal accounts for this

you do realize how all this info compounds which is why as the season goes on it is so incredibly accurate don't you?

It's not one dimensional as you paint it.

If the smaller school doesn't play a bigger one then it will not reflect and gives the advantage to the smaller school in looking at comparative scores.

This is what happens when they rank a Brownwood over other stronger 5A schools. They never played on the field so size of school and classification differences doesn't matter in this case with Calpreps. In Texas, size does matter. We don't have privates that can attract strong talent. A 1000 sized school in Texas (which is typically a rural farming community) is not the same as Bosco's 1000 kids. Case in point: The system wants to interpret Carthage and Bosco the same since they are similar in size and won the games they should have by the right margin. Carthage is ranked 26th in the country!!

What do you think would happen if they played head-to-head?? Carthage would lose by 60+. A human pollster would recognize this discrepancy and account for it immediately!!

[noonereal]

If the smaller school doesn't play a bigger one then it will not reflect and gives the advantage to the smaller school in looking at comparative scores.

This is what happens when they rank a Brownwood over other stronger 5A schools. They never played on the field so size of school and classification differences doesn't matter in this case with Calpreps. In Texas, size does matter. We don't have privates that can attract strong talent. A 1000 sized school in Texas (which is typically a rural farming community) is not the same as Bosco's 1000 kids. Case in point: The system wants to interpret Carthage and Bosco the same since they are similar in size and won the games they should have by the right margin. Carthage is ranked 26th in the country!!

What do you think would happen if they played head-to-head?? Carthage would lose by 60+. A human pollster would recognize this discrepancy and account for it immediately!!

I am sorry you cannot follow how cal works but they have a full explanation for you available. It's very clear and may be worth a read. There is immense knowledge in numbers. No schools play in a vacuum or you would have a point, as it is you just have a lack of understanding.honest.
I would not expect Bosco to beat Carthage b y 60, nor would I expect Trinity would.

[jbell73986]

I am sorry you cannot follow how cal works but they have a full explanation for you available. It's very clear and may be worth a read. There is immense knowledge in numbers. No schools play in a vacuum or you would have a point, as it is you just have a lack of understanding.honest.
I would not expect Bosco to beat Carthage b y 60, nor would I expect Trinity would.

I've alreay read the site. Actually I've been a professional statistician so these "put down" remarks are silly. I honestly know more about the subject than you. All you ever state is "there's knowledge in numbers" but can't explain what that knowledge is. But since you are so academic I wait for you to explain what this great knowledge is:

Here's a hint, explain the statistical accuracy in projecting a game between a team in New York with one in California when there is no comparative analysis. I wait for your answer.

Edited by jbell73986, 01 April 2011 - 03:36 PM.

[noonereal]

I've alreay read the site. Actually I've been a professional statistician so these "put down" remarks are silly. I honestly know more about the subject than you. All you ever state is "there's knowledge in numbers" but can't explain what that knowledge is. But since you are so academic I wait for you to explain what this great knowledge is:

Here's a hint, explain the statistical accuracy in projecting a game between a team in New York with one in California when there is no comparative analysis. I wait for your answer.

now you scared me

(but I did not put you down, I don't understand why you find such little value in numbers, I though you were a young guy who did not understand this stuff, sorry )

the answer to your question is simple

the system judges the relative strength of teams across the nation because info from across the nation is input.

enough teams play enough teams out of their league or state to be able to make very sound judgments on probable outcomes

but you know all this so why ask?

if you were a statistician why no longer? heck i would love it, i love numbers, always did

[jbell73986]

now you scared me

(but I did not put you down, I don't understand why you find such little value in numbers, I though you were a young guy who did not understand this stuff, sorry )

the answer to your question is simple

the system judges the relative strength of teams across the nation because info from across the nation is input.

enough teams play enough teams out of their league or state to be able to make very sound judgments on probable outcomes

but you know all this so why ask?

if you were a statistician why no longer? heck i would love it, i love numbers, always did

I asked for the accuracy not how. The answer with any inferential model is there are limitations in knowing about the population you are making an inference about. Calpreps is using sample data between 2 teams that play on the East coast and with very very limited information making inferences about teams thousands of miles away. Simply put, facts and data can be and are typically miscalculated and incorrectly assumed. This is a fairly elementary understanding of the limitations with using inferences. Conversely, it's much easier to make inferences within a state b/c the sampling data is closer (not in distance but in demographics, games played among similar teams, classification, etc) to the population I'm drawing an inference to.

Trust me, Carthage would get pounded by a top level national team. 60 points is being generous...they don't have the depth to compete.

Statistical analysis is how I cut my teeth in my career.

[noonereal]

Statistical analysis is how I cut my teeth in my career.

so why can't you see ned's results and appreciate how well his service works?

Cool job though.

[jbell73986]

so why can't you see ned's results and appreciate how well his service works?

Cool job though.

Never mind...what I explained just went over your head for you to ask that question.

[lamarfan]

If the smaller school doesn't play a bigger one then it will not reflect and gives the advantage to the smaller school in looking at comparative scores.

This is what happens when they rank a Brownwood over other stronger 5A schools. They never played on the field so size of school and classification differences doesn't matter in this case with Calpreps. In Texas, size does matter. We don't have privates that can attract strong talent. A 1000 sized school in Texas (which is typically a rural farming community) is not the same as Bosco's 1000 kids. Case in point: The system wants to interpret Carthage and Bosco the same since they are similar in size and won the games they should have by the right margin. Carthage is ranked 26th in the country!!

What do you think would happen if they played head-to-head?? Carthage would lose by 60+. A human pollster would recognize this discrepancy and account for it immediately!!

There is not a team anywhere that would've beat Carthage by 60 including TX teams. I understand your point though.

[lamarfan]

I am sorry you cannot follow how cal works but they have a full explanation for you available. It's very clear and may be worth a read. There is immense knowledge in numbers. No schools play in a vacuum or you would have a point, as it is you just have a lack of understanding.honest.
I would not expect Bosco to beat Carthage b y 60, nor would I expect Trinity would.

Thats the first reasonable observation you have made about a Tx team or a team from the south.

[jbell73986]

There is not a team anywhere that would've beat Carthage by 60 including TX teams. I understand your point though.

Did Carthage have folks hurt early in the season? They were waxed by Chapel Hill and Nacogdoches. Nacogdoches went on to lose by like 50 to Lufkin the following week.