14 replies to this topic

[BIFF]

Does anyone know the playoff chances as of today? Is there still a chance.

[michaelglenn]

There still should be, yes. But barely. Those "L's" aren't going to help us any. We need to get back on track and we have a really good shot this friday with Lancaster.

Better blocking, more passing + accuracy, better use of timeouts, and speedier play calling. If we can improve upon those things, we should be able to pull out a "W".

Go Lions! Let's do this!!

Edited by michaelglenn, 04 October 2011 - 08:29 PM.

[stealthfighter11]

bottom line 25 secs to get a play in

[monter]

We would probably have to win out to get in, and even a 5-3 record might not be enough, depending on tie-breakers and depending on how other teams do. I don't think 4-4 in District will be enough for any team to get in.

Here are the District standings as of today (Wednesday, Oct. 5th):

Corsicana 4-0
Hachie 3-0
Poteet 3-1
Lancaster 2-1
Red Oak 2-2
West Mesquite 1-2
Ennis 1-3
Terrell 0-3
Forney 0-4

There are 4 games left in the regular season.

Edited by monter, 05 October 2011 - 02:21 PM.

[brickstone75]

For no other reason than to be happily proven wrong, I'll say - We're out of it.

[kbo]

District Standings as of Wednesday, Oct. 12

Waxahachie 4-0
Corsicana 4-1
Lancaster 3-1
Mesquite Poteet 3-2
Red Oak 2-2
West Mesquite 2-2
Ennis 1-4
Forney 1-4
Terrell 0-4



Note:

Waxahachie beat Terrell, Red Oak, Forney, & Lancaster
Corsicana beat West Mesquite, Lancaster, Ennis, & Mesquite Poteet
Lancaster beat Forney, West Mesquite, & Ennis
Mesquite Poteet beat Terrell, Red Oak, & Forney
Red Oak beat Ennis & Terrell
West Mesquite beat Ennis & Mesquite Poteet
Ennis beat Forney
Forney beat Terrell

[704ever]

Waxa also beat Cana and is 5-0

[111]

To back in we need Poteet to loose out and for us to win out. Will also need Red Oak to help with some timely losses

[stealthfighter11]

Playoffs ? Don t talk about playoffs. Are you kidding me ? Playoffs ? I m just hoping we can win another game. ..Jim Mora ..

Edited by stealthfighter11, 14 October 2011 - 03:15 PM.

[monter]

Playoffs ? Don t talk about playoffs. Are you kidding me ? Playoffs ? I m just hoping we can win another game. ..Jim Mora ..

Playoffs? Perhaps not this season. Although I am very encouraged by some of the things that I've seen during games. The intensity, and the desire is there. We just need to correct our drive-killing mistakes.

I do believe that next year, and subsequent years will be much better for the Ennis Lions.

Everyone, please remember. This is the first year at Ennis for Coach Alvarez. I realize that we, as Ennis fans, have become accustomed to winning. That WILL happen again, and soon. Coach Alvarez is still learning the players, and the players are still learning the system. After over a decade in a no-huddle shotgun spread, we all must make adjustments. We are seeing new offensive and defensive philosophies on the gridiron. We may not be used to it, but just as we became accustomed to the Spread, we will become accustomed to what Coach Alvarez and his staff are doing. And we WILL win.

Recall, if you will:
State Championship year of 2000, we averaged 38.75 points per game, and allowed 12.625.
State Championship year of 2001, we averaged 41 points per game, and allowed 11.125.
Semi-Final year of 2002, we averaged 39.07 points per game, and allowed 13.87.
State Championship year of 2004, we averaged 36.4 points per game, and allowed 11.66.

Even in 2003, when we lost in the quarterfinals, that season we scored 699 points in 13 games, which was 53.77 points per game, average. That season, we also only allowed 10.23, and Highland Park's 38 points in the sole loss that season skews that number upward slightly.

Aside from 2003, I don't see any of the average points scored or points allowed as being out of the realm of possibility for Ennis in the very, very near future. I recall in the post-game interview after the Seguin game, that coach Alvarez was disappointed that the Lions did not score more than 35. I really, really liked that.

I'm not saying that we won't get to 2003 levels, but that might still be a few seasons away.

I believe that next year is a realignment year, so I don't know who we're going to be playing yet, but I will go out on a limb and say that the expectations for the Ennis Lions are going to be high next year.

More importantly, Don't give up on this Ennis team. I know I haven't.

Mark my words: There will be a State Title coming back to Ennis in the near future.

[stealthfighter11]

Amen Monter....very well said

[monter]

Here's more to digest...the first two years under coach Harrell, Ennis did not make the post-season. In fact, Ennis was outscored (on average) by 9.4 points the first season, and 15.6 the second season.

So we have to remember to keep things like this in mind.

And the rest of this post is not meant in any way to downplay the accomplishments of coach Harrell, or anyone on his staff, or any of his players. I'm just using these numbers as reference only.

NOTE: Please keep in mind that I hastily put a lot of this data into a spreadsheet. So I may have missed some formulas, or put the wrong formulas in the wrong places. You'll understand what I mean, though!

Throughout coach Harrell's tenure, Ennis scored 6,723 points, and allowed 3,381 over the course of 204 games. That's a Points Per Game average of 32.96 points per game, with a points allowed average of 16.57 (over the course of 204 games), an average points differential of 16.38 and a combined points differential of 3342.

Additionally, teams under coach Harrell averaged 420.19 points per season, allowed 211.31, and played an average of 12.75 games per season. That's a 31.87 points per game average, while only giving up 17.23, with an average point differential of +14.64.

Breaking down playoff seasons vs non-playoff seasons yields interesting results.

Playoff-wise, in the 13 seasons that Ennis made the playoffs under coach Harrell, Ennis scored 6,162 points, and allowed 2595. Over the course of the 13 seasons, there were 174 games played, where Ennis averaged 35.41 points per game, and allowed 14.91. That is a per-game points differential of +20.50, and a combined points differential of 3,567.

Ergo, in my opinion, an average of 35 points per game is not out of the realm of possibility for coach Alvarez's Lions. I firmly believe this.

But continuing on...

In playoff seasons, Ennis averaged 474 points, while allowing 199.62. They played an average of 13.38 games per season, and averaged 34.91 points per game each season, while allowing only 15.16. That gives us a total points differential of +274.38, and a seasonal per-game total point differential of +19.75.

Again, I think this is very doable.

For contrast, over the 16 years under coach Harrell, 3 were not playoff years. During those 3 seasons, Ennis only scored, on average, 187 points per season, while surrendering 262. This gives a seasonal points per game average of 18.70, and a seasonal per game points against average of 26.20. That's a -7.50 point difference -- per game.

And, during coach Harrell's tenure, Ennis went to the playoffs in 13 of the 18 seasons he was head coach. We did not go the first two seasons. That's 81.25 percent of the seasons.

I said all that, to say all this:

Let's give Coach Alvarez some time, and our support. As you can see from above, we CAN and WILL get back to being a dominating football team. I believe that the numbers above are very doable with coach Alvarez at the helm.

I understand that coach Harrell has been referred to as "legendary", and I would not disagree with that assessment.

I do believe that the Ennis football program is once again on the verge of dominance. If he makes the same type of progress that coach Harrell made, and in the same short timeframe, Ennis football will be back on top in a very short amount of time.

The numbers above are not used to compare coach Harrell to coach Alvarez. They are simply to illustrate that Ennis football has dominated, and the numbers, in my opinion, can be reached again. I have confidence in this coach, and the upcoming teams.

One other thing: If Ennis averages 13 points per game (they're currently averaging 16), and can reduce the amount of points they give up to 17 for the last 3 games, coach Alvarez's Lions will have performed similar to coach Harrell's Lions in 1994, his first season in Ennis.

Just saying.

Mark my words: State Championships will start coming home to Ennis soon!

Edited by monter, 14 October 2011 - 09:07 PM.

[kbo]

Thanks for the numbers break-down Monter......most impressive. Yes, I do believe we should give Coach Alvarez some time, it is not easy at all replacing a legendary coach like Coach Harrell. It took Coach Harrell a few years to get things going to the level we all enjoyed so much. I believe the needle is pointed up for Lions football, we can see it coming, I guess we are just impatient and ready for the good times to roll again. I believe in the Ennis Lions and our coaching staff. We will get it done! The Lions will be back......and soon!

Go Lions!

[monter]

Well, looking things over, if we win out (and ONLY if we win out), there's still a slight mathematical chance that we could get in.

Here's how:

WM would have to lose to Terrell, beat Red Oak, then lose their final game (against Forney).

Red Oak would have to lose all three of their remaining games (Corsicana, West Mesquite, Lancaster).

Poteet would have to lose their final two (Ennis, Waxahachie).

And obviously, we would have to win out (Poteet, Hachie, Terrell).

Edited by monter, 21 October 2011 - 04:02 PM.

[111]

We will need to be prepared for Poteet defensive play against us tonight. Our offense the way it has been run up to this point will not be competitive tonight. They will be aggressive at the point of pulling lineman and will try and disrupt the run or pass. Need to use that aggressiveness against them. Maybe even throw them off with a little zone blocking if that is in the book. Double team a few of those quick rushers they will throw at us a time or two and it might disrupt them