Traditionally, running backs have been the most valued position in fantasy football. But in PPR (pass-per-reception) leagues, I view wide receivers and running backs as equals. Even in standard leagues, receivers are catching up to backs because the runners are more likely to get injured, and too often are sharing the workload in a running back-by-committee.
Good runners are still tougher to find in the mid-to-late rounds of the draft, but don’t pass on a great receiver just because of that. I won a league once without taking a running back until the 4th round and you can too. With that being said, here’s how I’d rank the top 50 wide receivers going into 2017:
Tier 1
1. Antonio Brown
Brown is in a league of his own. He’s averaged 120 catches, 1,578 yards and 12 TDs the last four years and has missed only one game during that time. Once David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell are off the board, you got to go Brown.
Tier 2
2. Odell Beckham Jr.
3. Julio Jones
4. Jordy Nelson
5. Mike Evans (Ball High School, Galveston, TX)
6. A.J. Green
Tampa Bay WR Mike Evans (Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports)
A lot of pundits put Beckham and Jones in the same class as Brown, but not me. I’d rather have them in the latter half of the first round, not the middle. Jones has played a full 16 games just twice in his six-year NFL career and has only posted double-digit TDs once. While Beckham’s per-game averages in catches, yards and TDs has dropped every year. Once Brown is taken, I’d go back to drafting RBs.
Nelson was 2016’s Comeback Player of the Year after posting 97 catches, 1,257 yards and 14 TDs. He’ll likely have another monster season as Aaron Rodger’s favorite target. Evans is a physical specimen who will only get better with DeSean Jackson entering the fold to give opposing secondaries another threat to think about.
Green was on pace for an eye-popping 117 catches and 1,713 yards before suffering a season-ending injury in Week 11. I like all five of these guys a lot, but I’d probably take Brown along with my top 7 RBs before dipping into this pool.
Tier 3
7. T.Y. Hilton
8. Michael Thomas
9. Brandin Cooks
10. Keenan Allen
11. Doug Baldwin
12. Amari Cooper
13. Dez Bryant (Lufkin High Schoo, Lufkin, TX)
Hilton has never been a big TD threat, but he posted career highs in catches (91) and yards (1,448) last year. Thomas could be a better version of Saints all-time leading WR Marques Colston, who was a big, physical receiver with rock solid hands and a penchant for finding the end zone. Like Thomas, Colston found an instant connection with Brees and burst onto the scene as a rookie. Colston then posted even bigger numbers in year two. If Thomas can make a similar second year jump, which is all the more likely with Cooks off to New England, he could easily finish as a top-5 or top-3 WR.
Dallas WR Dez Bryant (Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports)
Cooks is generating a ton of buzz at Patriots camp. The worry of him joining New England is that he wouldn’t get enough targets with Gronkowski and Edelman already entrenched as favorites in the passing game, but when the Patriots played the Saints in the preseason two years ago, Cooks was so impressive Patriots coach Bill Belichick said “I’m glad we don’t play him twice a year and he’s not in our division.” Belichick usually covets his draft picks, yet he sent a first and third rounder to New Orleans to bring Cooks on board. I think Belichick has big plans for Cooks, and I can’t wait to see what those are.
Allen has had two potentially great seasons cut short by injuries. In 2015, he had 67 catches and 725 yards in eight games before a lacerated kidney shut him down for the year. Last season, he was off to a great start, with 6 catches for 63 yards in the first half of his week 1 game, but a torn ACL did him again. Some would say to stay away from a guy with that kind of injury history, and they may be right, but I’m willing to take the risk.
Baldwin showed that his insane finish to 2015 was no fluke by going for 94 catches and 1,128 yards last season. His TD numbers cut in half, however, and we should probably expect between only 6-9 scores again this year.
Cooper and Bryant have all the potential in the world, but Cooper faded towards the end of last year and has missed lots of training camp with shoulder and back issues. Bryant has had a weird two seasons, but you’ll regret passing on him if he gets back to where he was between 2012-14, when he averaged 91 catches, 1,312 yards and 14 TDs.
Tier 4
14. Demaryius Thomas
15. Davante Adams
16. Michael Crabtree (Carter High School, Dallas, TX)
17. Larry Fitzgerald
18. Tyreek Hill
19. Golden Tate
20. Jarvis Landry
21. Deandre Hopkins
22. Terrelle Pryor
Thomas took a dip in 2016, posting his lowest catch (90), yardage (1,083) and TD (5) totals since 2011. He’ll likely bounce back now that he’s no longer dealing with the lingering hip issue that bothered him last season, but without better QB play, it’s hard to see him turning back into the elite WR he was with Peyton Manning.
The next two guys are #2 targets on their offenses, but we’ve seen time and time again that #2 options can still be elite fantasy WRs if the QB play is good enough. For Adams, who caught 75 passes for 997 yards and 12 TDs last year, Rodgers is certainly talented enough to support a second stud WR behind Nelson. Carr may not be on Rodgers level, but one could argue Crabtree is the real go-to guy in that offense. The former Texas Tech legend has actually caught more passes and TDs than Cooper each of the last two years.
Oakland WR Michael Crabtree (Photo via Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
Fitzgerald will be 34 at the end of the month, but the ageless wonder is still getting it done. He’s not quite the deep threat he was in his prime, but as a reborn possession receiver, he is as reliable as they come. He caught a career-high 109 passes in 2015, and almost matched that with 107 last year. He’s only missed six games during his 13-year NFL career, so a mid-round pick of Fitz is as safe as it gets. Hill should probably be ranked higher than this. I can already hear my buddy Cole telling me so. Hill was a beast down the stretch last year with an average of 17.5 PPR points over his last eight games.
Tate will never be a big TD scorer at his size, but he’s notched at least 90 catches in all three of his seasons in Detroit, and will the #1 target for Matthew Stafford again this fall. Landry also struggles to find the end zone, but he’s caught 205 passes combined the last two seasons and is super reliable in PPR leagues.
Hopkins had a very disappointing season in 2016, but could bounce back if Tom Savage can indeed “put the ball in any place” like Hopkins says he can.
Pryor had a breakout season in 2016 and will be walking into a better situation as he trades his Browns uniform for a Redskins one. Pryor caught 77 balls for 1,007 yards despite playing on an offense that ranked 27th in passing. With Kirk Cousins throwing him the ball, those numbers should go up. Al Saunders, who was Pryor’s WR coach in Cleveland, said he’d be “shocked if (Pryor) isn’t in the Pro Bowl” in 2017.
Tier 5
23. Alston Jeffrey
24. Julian Edelman
25. Emmanuel Sanders (Bellville High School, Bellville, TX)
26. Stefon Diggs
27. Willie Snead
28. Allen Robinson
29. Martavis Bryant
30. Kelvin Benjamin
31. Sammy Watkins
32. Pierre Garcon
Jeffrey had two great years in 2013 and 2014, and was on pace for two more great campaigns in 2015 and 2016 before injuries derailed him. He signed a one-year deal with Philadelphia during the offseason, and will the #1 guy in a Doug Peterson offense that likes funneling the ball to one “go-to” WR. If he can stay healthy, I think Jeffrey could be a steal at his value.
There are concerns about Edelman’s role diminishing with Cooks now in the fold, but I think Edelman’s rapport with Brady is too strong for him to be completely phased out. Edelman has averaged 6.5 catches a game the last four years. Even if that number drops by 1.5, he’ll still end up with 80 catches. With his level of consistency, that’ll make him a reliable flex option at worst.
Sanders has as good of hands as anybody in the league, with just three drops the last three years. He could flirt with #2 WR numbers, but I consider him to be more of a flex option as long as he’s dealing with below-average QB play while getting out-targeted by teammate Demaryius Thomas.
Diggs is the #1 option in Minnesota, dropped just one pass last year and would have finished with more than 100 catches if not for injuries. He was the 13th best WR in PPR leagues on a PPG basis. If he stays healthy and can be more consistent week-to-week, he’s a steal. Snead has averaged 70.5 catches for 940 yards and 3.5 TDs in his two years in the league. He plays with a great QB in Brees, and now that Cooks is out of the picture, we should see an increase in his numbers this fall.
Denver WR Emmanuel Sanders (Photo via Ken Blaze- USA Today Sports)
Robinson fell off hard from an outstanding sophomore season in 2015, with 517 less yards and eight less TDs. With Bortles career seemingly in free-fall mode, it’s hard to believe Robinson getting back to what he once was. Bryant missed all of 2016 for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, but assuming he stayed in shape, he could be due for a big season in 2017. Like I said before, if the QB play is good enough, 2 WRs on the same team can absolutely both be fantasy studs. Brown will likely be the #1 WR in fantasy again, but that doesn’t mean the 6-foot-4 Bryant can’t carve out a major role. He averaged five catches, 77 yards and scored 7 TDs in just 10 regular season games the last year he played, and in those playoffs, he took it up another notch with 14 catches for 183 yards and a TD in two appearances. Roethlisberger obviously trusts him, so if Bryant can stay on the field, don’t be surprised if he explodes.
Benjamin had a solid rookie year, but never got the chance to make the second year leap because of a training camp ACL tear. Last season was about getting back on track, and he put up similar numbers to his rookie season, so could this year be his breakthrough? He certainly abused Houston Texans CBs Jonathan Joseph and Kevin Johnson in their preseason game the other week, and at 6-5/245, he’ll be a tough matchup for whoever lines up across from him. It’s hard to to completely count out a talent like Watkins, but he’s had trouble staying on the field because of injuries and joins a Rams offense that was next-to-last in passing yardage last season. I might be avoiding the Rams all together this year.
Garcon is the #1 target in an offense that finished last in passing yardage. Head Coach Kyle Shanahan is known for coaxing great seasons on of his #1 WRs, but I just don’t see it working out. Garcon has averaged just 73 catches for 857 yards and 4 TDs the last three years. The 49ers leading WRs during that span have averaged about the same: 72 catches for 839 yards and 4 TDs. I guess that makes Garcon a fine pick at his value, just don’t expect him to be any kind of a sleeper.
Tier 6
33. Richard Matthews
34. Brandon Marshall
35. Mike Wallace
36. Jamison Crowder
37. Tyrell Williams
38. Donte Moncrief
39. Desean Jackson
40. Cameron Meredith
41. Kenny Britt
42. Eric Decker
43. Adam Thielen
44. Sterling Shepard
45. Marvin Jones
46. Randall Cobb
47. Devante Parker
48. Jeremy Maclin
49. Corey Coleman (Pearce High School, Richardson, TX)
50. Josh Doctson (Legacy High School, Mansfield, TX)
At this point in the draft, we have a lot of guys that can have outbursts from time-to-time, but very few consistent contributors. Two guys I do like, however, are Matthews and Marshall. I know the Titans spent the No. 5 overall pick on Western Michigan WR Corey Davis, but Matthews built a great rapport with Mariota as last season went on and caught 38 balls for 588 yards and 6 TDs over the last eight games. Those are strong numbers, and if Mariota takes the leap that many are expecting, Matthews could take a leap as well. Marshall looked over-the-hill in 2016 with just 59 catches for 788 yards and 3 TDs, but he was also dealing with horrendous QB play as NYJ passers combined for the second-lowest completion percentage in the NFL last year.
Cleveland WR Corey Coleman (Photo via Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)
Now that he’s joined the crosstown rival Giants, he’ll get to catch passes from Eli Manning, and for the first time since his rookie year, he’ll be matching up against No. 2 and No. 3 corners as secondaries focus more of their attention on the extremely talented Beckham. He’s also a towering target (6-foot-5) compared to his fellow NYG WRs Beckham (5-11) and Shepherd (5-10) so he’ll get plenty of red zone looks and lots of 50-50 balls from a QB who isn’t afraid to take risks. For all those reasons, I think Marshall is a great bounce-back candidate in 2017. I like these next two guys as well, but not as much as Matthews and Marshall.
Wallace is no longer the deep threat he was in his early years, but with a lack of proven pass-catchers in a Baltimore offense that’s thrown more passes than anyone in the NFL the last two years, Wallace certainly has sleeper potential. Crowder will be stepping into a bigger role with Garçon and Jackson playing for other teams this year. The third-year pro out of Duke has the speed to be destructive out of the slot, but his size (5-9, 177) will limit his scoring ability.
Williams, who was an undrafted free agent out of D-II Western Oregon, took advantage of his opportunity when injuries to Keenan Allen and Stevie Johnson forced him into the lineup last year and he ended up with 1,000 yards. With Allen back in the lineup, Williams won’t see as many targets, but I’d be surprised if Rivers didn’t still look his way thanks to his 6-4 frame. Jackson’s 17.7 career yard-per-catch average is the highest among active players, but I prefer guys who rely less on the big play.
Meredith is the #1 target in Chicago, but I’m afraid Bears QB play won’t be good enough for it to matter. Britt, who fantasy pundits have long been waiting to breakout, finally hit 1,000 yards in his eighth NFL season last year. He’s now joining a Browns team that is short on reliable options in the passing game, but has the kind of QB problems that give children nightmares. I highlighted Matthews earlier in this tier, but fellow Titans WR Decker could also thrive. I’m not sure if Mariota is good enough yet to support two solid fantasy WRs, and you have to wonder about how big of a role top-5 pick Corey Davis plays, but Decker is just two years removed from an 80-catch, 1,000-yard, 12-TD season, and could do well with a change of scenery.
Washington WR Josh Doctson (Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports)
Thielen is already a success story. He was an undrafted free agent out of Div. II Minnesota State who in three years has impressed the Vikings enough to earn a three year, $17 million contract. If he can improve off his 69-catch, 967-yard, 5-TD season in 2016, he’d be providing nice value at this point in the draft. If not for the addition of Marshall, I’d be expecting Shepard to have a breakout second season, but there might be too many mouths to feed. Jones had a great first three games and then completely fell off the map. His QB, Stafford, should be good enough to support two fantasy-relevant WRs, but it didn’t happen last year. Cobb lost his job as Aaron Rodger’s #2 target to Devante Adams last year.
Coach Mike McCarthy said he wants to get Cobb more touches, but he’s still no more than a flex option. Parker certainly has more value now that Jay Cutler is the QB in Miami. Cutler has long had a reputation of locking on to big-bodied WRs. At 6’3”, 212, Parker fits that mold better than anyone else in the Dolphin’s receiving core. There could be an argument made that I should have Maclin where Wallace is, and Wallace where Maclin is. If Maclin can unseat Wallace as Flacco’s go-to WR, which could certainly happen considering Maclin averaged 86 catches for 1,203 yards and 9 TDs in 2014-15, he’s criminally undervalued at this price.
Coleman and Doctson are two second-year WRs who struggled to carve at roles as rookies. Coleman, the 2016 first-round pick, will certainly have a chance to be bigger part Cleveland’s passing game this time around, while Doctson, who was picked just seven spots behind Coleman, also projects for better numbers if the achilles injury that ruined his rookie season is truly behind him.
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