The 2026 UIL 3A Division I playoffs begin November 12 through 14. AT&T Stadium will host the state championship December 17 at 7 p.m. Central.
Gunter is my pick to win it all, followed by Malakoff, Columbus and Wall. Yoakum and Sinton round out my top six.
However, Gunter and Malakoff share Region II, while Wall occupies Region I. Only one of those three can reach the championship game. My pick requires Gunter to survive a demanding route, not simply take advantage of a favorable bracket.
Region I: Wall Gets the Pick Over Shallowater
The Wall Hawks enter at 9-1 after defeating Ingram Moore 37-17. They passed for 340 yards in that victory. For me, that passing production makes Wall particularly difficult to defend when opponents must chase points.
First comes Bowie, with Sweetwater or Dalhart awaiting the winner. I have the Hawks advancing to a potential third-round meeting with Bushland.
Meanwhile, the 7-3 Bushland Falcons open against Jim Ned. Paradise could follow in the area round, but I am taking Bushland to reach Wall before the Hawks advance.
On the opposite half, the Shallowater Mustangs finished 9-1 after beating Denver City 54-7. They open against Compass Academy and are my strongest regional alternative to Wall.
The Clyde Bulldogs also deserve attention after completing a 10-0 regular season with a 28-21 victory over Sweetwater. Clyde could meet Shallowater in the regional semifinals if both advance twice.
Even with Clyde unbeaten, I prefer Shallowater in that matchup. I expect the Mustangs to have enough offense to win.
Ultimately, I have Wall defeating Shallowater for the regional championship. The Hawks are my selection to represent Region I.
Region II: Gunter and Malakoff Head Toward a Showdown
Gunter enters at 9-1 after defeating Pilot Point 54-16. The Tigers allowed 154 points across 10 regular-season games. I trust that defense to deliver the stops needed against the stronger offenses waiting deeper in this bracket.
First comes Groesbeck, with Liberty-Eylau or Commerce next if Gunter advances. The 9-1 Winnsboro Red Raiders open against Tatum and could reach Gunter in the regional semifinals.
Meanwhile, Malakoff completed a 10-0 regular season by beating Mount Vernon 42-14. The Tigers outscored opponents 504-105, averaging 50.4 points while allowing just 10.5.
Those numbers explain why Malakoff is my biggest challenger to Gunter. I am not treating Gunter as an automatic winner. Malakoff could demand Gunter’s best performance before the state semifinals even arrive.
First, Malakoff opens against Gladewater, while the Pilot Point Bearcats face Mexia. I have Pilot Point advancing before falling to Malakoff in the area round.
Elsewhere, the Atlanta Rabbits enter at 8-2 and open against Mount Vernon. Whitesboro faces Grandview, creating a potential second-round meeting with Atlanta.
From there, I have Atlanta defeating Whitesboro before losing to Malakoff in round three. My other regional semifinal selection is Gunter over Winnsboro.
Ultimately, I am taking Gunter over Malakoff for the regional championship. Although Malakoff is second in my overall rankings, the bracket prevents these Tigers from meeting for the state title.
Region III: Columbus Leads Lorena and Franklin
The Columbus Cardinals enter at 10-0 after defeating Hempstead 49-3. They outscored opponents 452-140 during the regular season. I consider Columbus the strongest championship contender on this half of the state bracket.
First comes Little River Academy, followed by Anahuac or Palestine Westwood if the Cardinals advance. Franklin opens against Hempstead and could meet Columbus in round three.
Despite the Lions’ 6-4 record, I have Franklin reaching that matchup. Still, Columbus gets my pick to advance.
On the opposite half, the Lorena Leopards finished 8-2 after beating Cameron Yoe 64-14. They passed for 441 yards in that victory. That production makes Lorena a dangerous opponent if a game turns into a scoring contest.
Lorena opens against Sweeny, with the 7-3 Diboll Lumberjacks a possible second-round opponent. Diboll begins against Buna.
Meanwhile, the 9-1 Orangefield Bobcats open against Trinity. I have Orangefield reaching the regional semifinals, but Lorena is my choice against both Diboll and Orangefield.
Against Lorena, I would want Columbus to sustain possessions rather than rely entirely on quick scores. Keeping that passing attack off the field would matter.
Ultimately, I am picking Columbus over Lorena for the regional championship. The Cardinals’ scoring production and defensive results give me confidence in that selection.
Region IV: Yoakum Ahead of Sinton
Yoakum enters at 8-2 after defeating Cole 62-7. The Bulldogs have won seven straight and allowed only 128 points this season. Their two losses came by a combined eight points.
For me, that record understates how serious a contender Yoakum is. I have the Bulldogs fifth overall and first in Region IV.
First comes Carrizo Springs. Elsewhere, the Orange Grove Bulldogs face Raymondville, while the 9-1 Devine Warhorses open against Randolph.
Those games could produce an Orange Grove versus Devine area-round matchup. I am taking Orange Grove, followed by Yoakum over Orange Grove in round three.
On the opposite half, the Sinton Pirates enter at 8-2 after defeating West Oso 40-8. They also beat Orange Grove 22-7 during district play.
Sinton opens against Lyford and is my pick to reach the regional championship from that side. Ultimately, I am taking Yoakum over Sinton, with the Bulldogs’ defense providing the difference.
Final Four and State Champion Predictions
My predicted Final Four features the Wall Hawks, Gunter Tigers, Columbus Cardinals and Yoakum Bulldogs.
In the semifinals, I am picking Gunter over Wall and Columbus over Yoakum. That sets up Gunter against Columbus for the state championship.
Under this projection, Gunter would need to defeat Malakoff, Wall and Columbus in consecutive rounds. That is a difficult finish, but I trust the Tigers to handle it.
Ultimately, I am picking Gunter’s defense to make the decisive stops against Columbus.
My prediction for the 2026 UIL 3A Division I state champion: Gunter Tigers.
