The 2026 UIL 4A Division I playoffs begin November 12 through 14. The state championship is scheduled for December 19 at 3 p.m. Central at AT&T Stadium.
Stephenville is my pick to win it all. Lindale leads the challengers, followed by Kerrville Tivy, Corpus Christi Calallen and Bay City.
However, the bracket puts several of those contenders on the same side. Stephenville could face Bay City before the regional final, while Tivy and Calallen could meet in round three.
Region I: Decatur Gets the Pick
The Decatur Eagles enter at 9-1 after defeating Alvarado 49-28. They rushed for 327 yards in that victory, the kind of production I want from a playoff contender.
First comes San Angelo Lake View. A potential area-round matchup with El Paso Andress would immediately test my regional pick.
Meanwhile, Andress finished 10-0 after beating El Paso Ysleta 55-13. The Eagles open against Dumas, but their unbeaten record would not change my selection in a meeting with Decatur.
On the opposite half, the Aubrey Chaparrals enter at 7-3 after defeating Godley 55-22. They open against Andrews and are my pick to reach the regional championship from that side.
Importantly, Aubrey already defeated Decatur 28-21 during district play. That makes a potential rematch more compelling than the records alone suggest.
Still, I am taking Decatur to reverse that result. My projection has the Eagles defeating Andress in round two and Aubrey for the regional title.
Region II: Lindale Is the Strongest Challenger
The Lindale Eagles finished 10-0 after defeating Jacksonville 31-21. Their regular season also included a 45-21 victory over Longview Pine Tree and a 49-42 win against Kilgore.
For me, those results matter more than the undefeated record alone. Lindale has beaten two teams that could stand between the Eagles and a regional championship.
Beyond that, the Kilgore result shows Lindale can win when an opponent keeps scoring. I expect that experience to matter if the Eagles get pushed into another high-scoring game.
First comes Kaufman, followed by Fort Worth Eastern Hills or Dallas Wilmer-Hutchins if Lindale advances. Sulphur Springs is a potential third-round opponent.
Elsewhere, Pine Tree and Kilgore occupy the opposite half of the region. Lindale could face either in the regional final, but not before then.
Ultimately, I am picking the Eagles regardless of which opponent emerges. Lindale is my second-ranked team in this field and my choice to represent Region II in the state semifinals.
Region III: Stephenville Begins Its Title Defense
The Stephenville Yellow Jackets enter at 10-0 after beating Marble Falls 56-6. They produced 291 passing yards and 174 rushing yards in that victory.
More importantly, Stephenville enters as the defending champion. The Yellow Jackets defeated Kilgore 10-0 in last season’s state title game.
This year, I expect another six-win postseason. Their ability to produce through the air and on the ground gives me confidence against different playoff opponents.
First comes Navasota, with Vidor or Houston Sterling awaiting the winner. However, a potential third-round matchup against Bay City could provide a significant test.
The Bay City Blackcats finished 9-1 and closed their regular season by shutting out West Columbia 42-0. They open against Lampasas and are my strongest regional alternative to Stephenville.
On the other half, the Jarrell Cougars enter at 9-1 after defeating Burnet 69-21. Their opener against El Campo is no formality, but I am picking Jarrell to advance.
From there, I have the Cougars reaching the regional championship. Stephenville already defeated Jarrell 42-20 during the regular season, and I would take the Yellow Jackets again.
Ultimately, my projection sends Stephenville past Bay City in round three and Jarrell in the regional final.
Region IV: Tivy Leads a Competitive Group
The Kerrville Tivy Antlers enter at 9-1 after defeating Fredericksburg 38-21. They passed for 322 yards in that victory, showing why I expect their offense to challenge this regional field.
Despite a 53-50 loss to Canyon Lake, Tivy remains my third-ranked team in this field. The Antlers open against La Vernia, with Alice or Corpus Christi Tuloso-Midway awaiting if they advance.
Meanwhile, the Corpus Christi Calallen Wildcats finished 9-1 after defeating Corpus Christi Miller 42-27. They rushed for 338 yards in that game, presenting a different challenge from Tivy’s passing production.
Calallen opens against Hidalgo. Should both contenders advance twice, Tivy and Calallen would meet in the regional semifinals.
For me, that is one of the most important potential third-round games in the bracket. I rank Tivy just ahead of Calallen and am picking the Antlers.
Still, Calallen’s rushing production makes that selection far from comfortable. Keeping the Wildcats from sustaining long drives would be a major priority for Tivy.
On the opposite half, the Somerset Bulldogs closed with a 56-0 victory over San Antonio Kennedy. They open against Comal Davenport, with Canyon Lake a possible third-round opponent.
From there, I have Somerset reaching the regional championship. Ultimately, Tivy gets my pick over the Bulldogs to secure the final semifinal berth.
Final Four and State Champion Predictions
My predicted Final Four features the Decatur Eagles, Lindale Eagles, Stephenville Yellow Jackets and Kerrville Tivy Antlers.
In the semifinals, I am picking Lindale over Decatur and Stephenville over Tivy. That would put my top two teams in the state championship game.
Although Lindale would present a serious challenge, Stephenville remains my choice. I trust the Yellow Jackets’ offensive balance and championship experience to make the difference.
Ultimately, I am picking Stephenville to complete an undefeated season and win a second consecutive state title.
My prediction for the 2026 UIL 4A Division I state champion: Stephenville Yellow Jackets.
