The 2026 UIL 5A Division I playoffs begin November 12 through 14. The state championship is scheduled for December 19 at 11 a.m. at AT&T Stadium.
In another year, I could see DeSoto, Richmond Randle, Smithson Valley or Frisco Lone Star entering as an overwhelming favorite. Instead, all four share this field, along with Boerne Champion and several other contenders.
Randle has been dominant, and Smithson Valley has looked every bit like a defending champion. Still, DeSoto is my pick, very narrowly ahead of Randle. I expect the Eagles’ offensive and defensive lines to take over games and their rushing attack to be nearly unstoppable.
Region I: Denton Ryan Gets the Pick
With much of the attention elsewhere, Denton Ryan is my choice in Region I. The Raiders closed with a 42-6 victory over Chisholm Trail and open against Fort Worth Paschal.
Meanwhile, the Amarillo Sandies and Fort Worth Brewer Bears are my other teams to watch. Amarillo enters at 9-1 and faces El Paso Bel Air. Brewer opens against Azle.
Because of their bracket positions, Ryan and Brewer could meet in the regional semifinals. Amarillo sits on the opposite half, making the Sandies my pick to reach the regional championship.
Ultimately, I have Ryan defeating Brewer and then Amarillo to earn a state semifinal berth.
Region II: DeSoto and Lone Star Lead a Strong Field
After an 0-2 start, DeSoto has won eight straight to enter at 8-2. The Eagles finished with a 76-0 victory over Mansfield Legacy and an 83-0 win against Cleburne.
For me, the 2025 comparison starts with how DeSoto responded to early losses. Last year’s Eagles also opened 0-2 before winning the 6A Division II championship. This time, I expect another title run after the move to 5A Division I.
More importantly, I trust DeSoto’s ability to control the line of scrimmage. Running back SaRod Baker needed just three carries to produce 105 yards and two touchdowns against Cleburne. I expect that ground game to become even more important as the competition improves.
Last postseason, Baker rushed for 1,628 yards and 21 touchdowns. That is the kind of playoff production I believe DeSoto can deliver again.
Meanwhile, Frisco Lone Star, last year’s state runner-up, finished 10-0 after defeating McKinney North 58-7. The Rangers are my biggest regional threat to DeSoto and a legitimate championship contender.
Following Birdville, Lone Star could face Lancaster in round two and Highland Park in round three. I have the Rangers winning both potential matchups.
On the other half, DeSoto opens against North Mesquite. Melissa and Richland are my projected second- and third-round opponents for the Eagles.
Ultimately, I am picking DeSoto over Lone Star in the regional championship. Ranking Lone Star fourth overall says more about this field than any lack of confidence in the Rangers.
Region III: Randle Has Been Dominant
Richmond Randle enters at 10-0 after outscoring opponents 502-88. Their defense deserves as much attention as their offense. I have the Lions just behind DeSoto in the championship conversation.
Beyond the blowouts, Randle also beat South Oak Cliff 20-14. The Lions have shown they can win a tight game, which matters when the margin for error disappears.
Still, Angleton showed how competitive this region could become, losing to Randle just 29-22. The 9-1 Wildcats closed with a 59-13 win over Victoria East and open against Georgetown.
On that side of the bracket, 9-1 College Station faces Friendswood, while 8-2 La Porte draws Northbrook. I have the Cougars defeating the Bulldogs in a potential area-round matchup.
From there, I am picking Angleton over College Station in the regional semifinals. Angleton is my strongest regional alternative to Randle.
Meanwhile, the Lions open against A&M Consolidated. Port Arthur Memorial begins against Waltrip, with Weiss a possible second-round opponent for the Titans.
My projection sends Memorial into a third-round meeting with Randle. Ultimately, I have the Lions defeating Memorial and then Angleton to reach the state semifinals.
Region IV: Smithson Valley Faces Familiar Competition
The Smithson Valley Rangers enter at 9-0 while pursuing a third consecutive state championship. They have outscored opponents 577-99, including a 35-24 victory over Boerne Champion.
Meanwhile, Champion finished 9-1 after beating Manor 49-7. I rank the Chargers fifth overall, and they are my biggest threat to Smithson Valley in this region.
First comes Laredo Nixon for the Rangers. I have Smithson Valley meeting the undefeated Medina Valley Panthers in round three, with the Rangers advancing.
On the other half, Champion opens against Eagle Pass Winn. McAllen, which finished 10-0, could provide the Chargers’ second-round test.
Elsewhere, Corpus Christi Veterans Memorial and Austin Anderson could meet in the area round. I am picking Veterans Memorial in that matchup.
From there, I have Champion defeating McAllen and Veterans Memorial to reach the regional championship. That would create a rematch with Smithson Valley.
Ultimately, I am taking the Rangers again. Their championship experience and current production make them my choice to emerge from Region IV.
Final Four and State Champion Predictions
My predicted Final Four features the Denton Ryan Raiders, DeSoto Eagles, Richmond Randle Lions and Smithson Valley Rangers.
In the state semifinals, I am picking DeSoto over Ryan and Randle over Smithson Valley. That second matchup could be every bit as competitive as the championship game.
From there, I have DeSoto facing Randle for the state title. There is very little separation between these two in my rankings.
Still, I trust DeSoto’s offensive and defensive lines to decide the biggest moments. I expect the running game to finish drives, control possession and carry the Eagles to another championship.
My prediction for the 2026 UIL 5A Division I state champion: DeSoto Eagles.
