Carthage Leads 2026 UIL 4A Division II Playoff Predictions
The 2026 UIL 4A Division II playoffs begin November 12 through 14. The state championship is scheduled for December 18 at 3 p.m. Central at AT&T Stadium.
Carthage dropped outside the Texas HS Football top five after its late-season loss to Gilmer. Still, the Bulldogs are my pick to win it all.
Brock and Gilmer lead my challengers, followed by West Orange-Stark and La Vega. However, my top three teams share the same side of the state bracket. Only one can reach the championship game.
Region I: Brock Leads Liberty and Graham
The Brock Eagles enter at 9-1 after defeating Mineral Wells 56-3. A week earlier, they beat Graham 59-7. Those results reinforce why Brock is my strongest championship challenger to Carthage.
First comes Perryton, with Mountain View or Big Spring awaiting if the Eagles advance. Brock could then face Lubbock-Cooper Liberty in the regional semifinals.
Meanwhile, the Liberty Patriots finished 10-0 after beating Perryton 73-12. They open against Burkburnett. I consider Liberty Brock’s biggest regional threat, but that potential matchup would arrive in round three.
Liberty produced 248 passing yards and 246 rushing yards in its finale. That balance gives Brock plenty to prepare for in a potential matchup.
On the opposite half, the Graham Steers enter at 9-1 and open against Lubbock Estacado. I have Graham reaching the regional championship.
Ultimately, my projection has Brock defeating Liberty and then Graham. The Eagles are my pick to represent Region I.
Region II: Carthage Gets the Rematch Pick
The Carthage Bulldogs enter at 8-1 after responding to their 49-42 loss against Gilmer with a 42-0 victory over Center. They open against Quinlan Ford, with Glen Rose a possible second-round opponent.
Beyond the recent results, Carthage has won the last two state championships. I trust the Bulldogs to make the adjustments necessary for another six-win postseason.
Meanwhile, Texarkana Pleasant Grove enters at 8-2 and opens against Farmersville. The Hawks could face Van Alstyne in the area round.
First, Van Alstyne must handle Venus. I like Pleasant Grove in that potential second-round matchup, setting up another meeting with Carthage.
The Bulldogs won their regular-season meeting 37-13. I am picking Carthage again.
On the other half, the Gilmer Buckeyes finished 8-2 after beating Spring Hill 55-28. They open against North Lamar, while Sanger faces Hillsboro. My projection has Gilmer defeating Sanger in the area round.
Importantly, Gilmer rushed for 401 yards against Carthage. The Bulldogs cannot allow that kind of production in a rematch.
Still, I am picking Carthage to defend the run better and defeat Gilmer for the regional championship. That is a prediction, not a dismissal of what the Buckeyes accomplished in October.
Region III: West Orange-Stark Leads a Deep Region
The West Orange-Stark Mustangs enter at 8-2 after defeating Hardin-Jefferson 64-15. They also completed a 5-0 district schedule and open against Van.
For me, the Mustangs are the strongest team in this region. Their potential third-round opponent, however, deserves considerable attention.
The Canton Eagles finished 10-0 after defeating Athens 44-21. They begin against Shepherd. I have Canton advancing twice before falling to West Orange-Stark in the regional semifinals.
On the opposite half, Bellville enters at 7-3 after beating Brazosport 63-26. The Brahmas open against Houston Worthing, with Hamshire-Fannett or Athens awaiting if they advance.
Meanwhile, the Houston Yates Lions finished 9-1 and open against La Grange. Silsbee faces Madisonville, creating a possible area-round meeting between the Lions and Tigers.
I am taking Yates over Silsbee and Bellville over Hamshire-Fannett in those projected second-round games. From there, Bellville gets my pick over Yates.
Ultimately, I have West Orange-Stark defeating Bellville for the regional championship. Canton is my second-ranked team in this region, but the bracket places the Eagles in the Mustangs’ half.
Region IV: La Vega Gets the Pick Over Wimberley
The La Vega Pirates enter at 10-0 after defeating Waco Connally 77-7. They also beat Robinson 50-23 in their previous game. That offensive production makes the Pirates my choice in Region IV.
First comes Manor New Tech, with London or Geronimo Navarro awaiting the winner. However, La Vega’s biggest regional challenge could arrive in round three.
The Wimberley Texans finished 9-0 after shutting out Austin Eastside 65-0. They open against Salado and could meet La Vega in the regional semifinals.
For me, Wimberley is the strongest alternative to the Pirates. Still, I am taking La Vega in that potential matchup.
On the other half, the Robinson Rockets enter at 8-2 and face Giddings. The 9-1 Rockport-Fulton Pirates open against Gonzales, with Robinson a possible second-round opponent.
I am picking Robinson in that matchup. Cuero also occupies this half of the bracket, making the Rockets’ route far from straightforward.
Ultimately, I have Robinson reaching the regional championship before falling to La Vega. The Pirates are my selection to advance to the state semifinals.
Final Four and State Champion Predictions
My predicted Final Four features the Brock Eagles, Carthage Bulldogs, West Orange-Stark Mustangs and La Vega Pirates.
In the semifinals, I am picking Carthage over Brock and West Orange-Stark over La Vega. That would recreate last season’s championship matchup, which Carthage won 49-21.
Although Brock is my second-ranked team, the bracket puts the Eagles in Carthage’s semifinal path. West Orange-Stark is my strongest contender on the opposite side.
Carthage also defeated West Orange-Stark 23-7 in September. That result strengthens my confidence in the Bulldogs should the teams meet again.
Ultimately, I am taking Carthage over West Orange-Stark. The late-season loss exposed something the Bulldogs must fix, but it did not erase their championship potential.
My prediction for the 2026 UIL 4A Division II state champion: Carthage Bulldogs.
