Unless you’ve been living under a rock, been cryogenically frozen since Texas A&M and Missouri left the Big 12, or haven’t been following any collegiate sports at all, you’ve probably at least heard of the Big 12’s rumored attempts to expand the conference from 10 teams to 12 or even 14. It’s a cycle that has been set on a swing set from the beginning, first the conference decides that it’s not going to expand, but later releases a statement saying that they’re still considering the possibilities.
Yesterday, the Big 12 has apparently decided that it’s done for good, and in doing so, has essentially opted to stem the tide of an arterial bleed rather than to fix the problem outright.
There are many choices for expansion, and you likely have some preference as to who gets in and who doesn’t. Obviously Houston fans will prefer Houston gets in, even though Houston coming in wouldn’t guarantee any new money for the conference, and there’s no guarantee superstar coach Tom Herman stays, and no guarantee the Cougars will keep up their worldbeater pace in football. Others prefer BYU and the tradition of a classic powerhouse, but BYU’s religious statutes prevent the Cougars from playing on Sundays, a huge red flag in the areas of non-revenue sports. Others would say Cincinnati, and while it would be undoubtedly hilarious to watch Tommy Tuberville have to go to Lubbock every other year and reap the rage of Texas Tech fans, Cincinnati isn’t exactly the most appealing prospect in terms of staying power.
There is no perfect candidate, which is a huge reason why the Big 12 hasn’t expanded yet. Well, that or Texas doesn’t want to, and the rest of the conference is just following the guaranteed money stream of one of the most valuable programs in the nation.
Let me be clear: there’s more to this than just football. No team is “scared” of any other, and no one is blocking anyone based on athletic prowess. This is about the only thing that has ever mattered since College athletics became an industry: money. It’s complete and utter insanity to think that any team is ducking another when the biggest contribution to the original schism of the Big 12 was the creation of the Longhorn Network, and bigger revenue schools not wanting a Big 12 network.
There’s TV money to be considered here, and an outside pressure from ESPN and Fox, the conference’s television partners, to keep the amount of schools that they expand to low due to mounting costs of adding more schools to the conference. TV plays a huge role in all of this, to the point that it’s likely that the biggest factor in determining the amount of teams that get in, if any get in at all.
It’s naive to think that the recently minted four-team College Football Playoff doesn’t also play a part in this. Right now, the Big 12 doesn’t have a guaranteed spot in the CFP, with an expansion to eight teams or potentially even six teams, they stand a bigger chance at getting a chunk of that Playoff change. With eight, the Big 12 would likely be guaranteed a spot. With six, who knows, but the odds are certainly better. If the Playoff had been at six outright, there’s a guarantee that either Baylor or TCU or both gets in in the 2014 season, which would have given the Big 12 a team in the playoffs in every year it’s been how we determine the national champion.
If a team from your conference makes it into the postseason (bowl games), each school gets 300,000 dollars. If a team gets into the semifinals, the conference gets a 6 million dollar paycheck. The money to be made by having a team in the CFP is substantial, and would almost guarantee the conference’s survival, based on the fact that no school would bolt for a bigger paycheck.
And therein lies the truth of the matter: due to the amount of money that the big schools, namely Texas, pull in, they can do whatever they want, with the rest of the Big 12 at their mercy. Texas can financially go independent, like Notre Dame, and still pull in the money to make athletics insanely profitable for the people involved with it. Other schools simply can’t.
There’s no right or wrong call here. In 2025, TV deals for the conference are up, and it could come tumbling down like a house of cards. Things could also change, and the conference could become so powerful in revenue sports that ESPN and Fox have no choice but to renegotiate because they don’t want to lose the eyeballs that have become attracted to the conference. The Big 12 could decide to expand, and nothing could change in terms of quality on the field, and the eyeballs might just not be there for them to re-up the ante. There are no guarantees. There are no certainties. This is college football, where teams can be headed to the CFP one week and might not make a bowl the next.
Nothing is for certain in the conference that was formed out of the death throes of the SWC and Big Eight. Nothing’s been certain from the beginning. There’s only one certainty: when 2025 rolls around, no one knows what will happen.
